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The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Ukraine Liveblog Day 220

Publication: Ukraine Liveblogs
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The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
G7 Praises Ceasefire, Amnesty For Separatists, And 'Special Status' For Donbass

The Group of Seven (G7, which is the G8-1, the one missing being Russia) has praised the peace deal signed in Minsk. RFE/RL reports:

The Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized nations has welcomed the Minsk agreements establishing a cease-fire in Ukraine as an "important opportunity" to find a political solution to the conflict.

In a statement on September 25, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States condemned violations of the September 5 cease-fire and called on Russia to withdraw all of its forces, weapons, and equipment from eastern Ukraine.

The G7 also commended Ukraine for passing legislation on amnesty and a "special status" for parts of the country's east and welcomed the ratification of a free-trade agreement with the European Union, some provisions of which are being delayed until the end of 2015.

The countries said they would roll back sanctions against Russia when it meets its commitments according to the Minsk agreement and cease-fire.

In yesterday's address to the United Nations General Assembly, President Barack Obama said that the ceasefire was a way to bring about a political solution to the crisis:

These are simple truths, but they must be defended. America and our allies will support the people of Ukraine as they develop their democracy and economy. We will reinforce our NATO allies, and uphold our commitment to collective defense. We will impose a cost on Russia for aggression, and counter falsehoods with the truth. We call upon others to join us on the right side of history – for while small gains can be won at the barrel of a gun, they will ultimately be turned back if enough voices support the freedom of nations and peoples to make their own decisions.

Moreover, a different path is available – the path of diplomacy and peace and the ideals this institution is designed to uphold. The recent cease-fire agreement in Ukraine offers an opening to achieve that objective. If Russia takes that path – a path that for stretches of the post-Cold War period resulted in prosperity for the Russian people – then we will lift our sanctions and welcome Russia’s role in addressing common challenges. That’s what the United States and Russia have been able to do in past years – from reducing our nuclear stockpiles to meet our obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to cooperating to remove and destroy Syria’s declared chemical weapons. And that’s the kind of cooperation we are prepared to pursue again—if Russia changes course.

While the international community is praising the ceasefire, a few things need to be kept in mind. First is that the ceasefire is not holding. The second is that it does not resolve the fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine and remains in possession of large parts of the east which are now governed by Moscow's proxies. Are the ceasefire, the buffer zone, and the rest of the agreements from Minsk like the granting of special status to Donbass really just codifying the legitimacy of the Russian-backed militants and effectively freezing the conflict indefinitely? And if so, are the international leaders ok with this as long as the violence does not intensify?

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Hungary Halts Gas Shipments To Ukraine

UPDATED: Earlier today Reuters reported that Russian natural gas flow to Hungary, while at normal amounts, was below what was needed to meet increased demand. Now Reuters is reporting that Hungary has stopped all gas shipments to Ukraine, and shipments are suspended indefinitely:

"In order to sustain supply security and system balance the (Ukraine-Hungary border) hub must be switched in a way that all pipelines on the network are suitable for shipments in the direction of (Hungary)," [a statement from the gas operator] said.

It said the 6 billion cubic metre annual capacity for gas shipments from from Hungary to Ukraine is subject to technical and commercial conditions and is not a guaranteed capacity.

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Poroshenko Says Reform Efforts a Priority, Corruption As Big a Threat As Russian Aggression

In today's press conference, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko stressed that the government and economy need to be reformed, not only to fulfill the goals of the Euromaidan revolution but because corruption is, according to Poroshenko, as large a threat to Ukraine as Russian aggression in the east. The reform efforts will culminate in 2020 when Ukraine joins the European Union. RFE/RL has a list of selected quotes from the speech, excerpted below:

"Today, our eastern border is where the front line for united Europe lies. This is why the support for Ukraine from the world's democratic countries and nations is so strong, as is the understanding that our courageous victory will be a victory for all of Europe."

"Our plan is clearly called Strategy 2020, for only reforms can uplift the country that is unable to respond to the needs of its citizens with a total collapse being the only available alternative. Only reforms can meet revolutionary expectations of Ukrainian citizens -- the driving, active part of our society -- with powerful wave of protests being the only available alternative. Only reforms can be the answer to our potential international investors and the only available alternative to that is staying one-on-one with Russia."

"In order to persevere, we need to break our neo-feudalistic political model, dismantle the mechanism that enabled a small circle of oligarchs and corrupt bureaucrats to make a fortune from privatizing the entire country, gutting it and tossing it to bleed. We are obliged to create a society where order prevails."

EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele has issued a statement in response to Poroshenko. Again, RFE/RL reports:

 "We support Ukraine in its efforts to deliver on the necessary political and economic reforms to achieve the modernization of the country.

"Currently we are working with Ukraine on the implementation of the Association Agreement, which offers [a] blueprint for these reform[s] and modernization.

"The European Council has recently stated that the Association Agreement does not constitute the final goal of our cooperation.

"What is important right now is to focus on the immediate challenges the country is facing and on ways...to tackle them in the most effective way for the benefit of the people of Ukraine.

"It is for Ukraine to make its free and sovereign choices about its ambitions, orientation, and external relations."

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Ukrainian President Poroshenko Holds First Press Conference

Journalist Maxim Eristavi is at President Petro Poroshenko's first press conference, and it's a little rough around the edges but has produced some interesting information.

According to Eristavi, Poroshenko is optimistic that rebel-held areas will hold local elections on December 7th.

Poroshenko has also confirmed that Ukraine is planning on applying for EU membership in 2020.

But then Poroshenko said a series of eyebrow-raising things:

Poroshenko had openly asked for more weapons for Ukraine, and a Ukrainian military expert consulted by The Interpreter in Kiev stressed the need for certain weapons, including anti-tank weapons, as well as the need for drones to better target artillery. So while Poroshenko may be spinning the truth to save face here, it's not surprising to hear him say that weapons are not the most important thing Ukraine needs.

Military experts inside the Ukrainian government and sources in the Ministry of Defense tell us that they believe that there are still a significant amount of Russian spies inside the government, particularly inside security-related departments like defense and military intelligence, and since all of Ukraine's equipment was made in Russia, anything with communications or broadcasting capability may be compromised. Everyone we spoke to also said that the Russian and separatist artillery was far more effective than Ukrainian artillery because Ukraine lacks drones to properly target their weapons, whereas their enemy has employed a significant amount of drones for the same purposes.

This claim is still unverified:

Poroshenko also spoke about the weak hryvnia (more on this in a later update).

But then Poroshenko began to speak about the east, specifically, and what the plan was to end the crisis.

This is the line Poroshenko walks. He has to defeat the Russians without military support from his allies, and he has to do so while looking like he's tough enough to do it on his own. Since Ukraine's military is not yet up to the challenge, he has had to negotiate a way to freeze, or at least slow, the crisis -- temporarily if he can, permanently if he cannot -- and he has to do so while still looking like he is not surrendering to Russia and is maintaining Ukraine's territorial integrity. With respect to the former regime, much of which is still in power, he has to find a way to find justice for the fallen without driving more fighters into the hands of the separatists, and without alienating more of the people who keep the peace in his country, like the police and some of the soldiers who may have supported Yanukovych. A pardon for those who will join the fight seems like the easiest way to do that.

And he has to do all of this without crashing the economy, and while still keeping reforms on track:

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Checkpoints Near Mariupol Reportedly Under Attack

Mariupol news site 0629 reports that they have received reports from servicemen and residents that Russian or separatist fighters are shelling checkpoints to the north-east of the city with Grad rockets.

Mariupol residents have been asked to be extremely careful and not to approach military checkpoints. 

At 13:30 (10:30 GMT) 0629 reported:

According to the Headquarters for the Defence of Mariupol, a checkpoint near the village of Talakovka is being shelled at the moment with Grad rockets.

Ukrainian soldiers are returning an appropriate response. There are no casualties. Measures are being taken to ensure the safety of the civilian population. The Headquarters for the Defence of Mariupol calls on citizens not to panic and to carry on with their daily activities.

An update at 13:47:

The shelling of checkpoints has resumed. 10th and 12th. Two 200s (killed). This is reported on the Facebook page of the blogger and activist Starshina Nechiporenko.

13:56:

According to initial reports from medical workers, two wounded soldiers have been brought to Mariupol from Pavlopole - a private and a junior sergeant. The guys had multiple shrapnel wounds to the arms, legs and chests.

Translations by The Interpreter.
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