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The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Russia Update: May 31, 2016

Publication: Russia Update
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The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Ruble Sees First Monthly Decline Since January; Long-Term Prospects May Be Improving

The data about the Russian ruble is mixed, to say the least. At the end of 2015 it was in freefall, suffering from domestic mismanagement and the crash of oil prices. While some of Russia's fiscal policy has been praised by economists since last fall, the realities of a bleak economic outlook were settling in.

Since mid-January, both the ruble and the price of oil have rallied, and Russia has led emerging markets in its rally. Business Insider reported last week that many investors were "going long" with the ruble, expecting it to do well in the long term:

It's been one of the best performing currencies in the wake of the oil price rebound.

Brent prices have soared by about 75% since mid-January, while the ruble has strengthened by about 20% against the dollar in the same time frame.

This is perhaps the key image to that analysis -- that while the ruble is still tracking crude oil, that relationship has softened and the ruble is outperforming both oil and other emerging markets: screen%20shot%202016-05-20%20at%209.50.1

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Wall Street is going long Russia

The Russian ruble's had a good couple of months. It's been one of the best performing currencies in the wake of the oil price rebound. Brent prices have soared by about 75% since mid-January, while the ruble has strengthened by about 20% against the dollar in the same time frame.

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May 31, 2016 20:30 (GMT)

However, today the ruble has dropped, completing its first monthly loss since January. According to Bloomberg the ruble entered May at 65.24 to a dollar and will close it at about 66.10. It has done much better against the Euro, but unfortunately for Russia, the price of oil is set in dollars. Bloomberg reports:

The currency’s strength may prove unsustainable without further gains in crude, the central bank’s research and forecasting department said in a report published on Monday. The month of May often witnesses a depreciation in the currency, with data compiled by Bloomberg showing the ruble has posted monthly declines seven times during the past decade.

Even after underperforming oil in May, the currency’s 120-day correlation with the commodity that accounts for 60 percent of Russia’s exports along with natural gas was near a record high of 0.81 on Tuesday. A value of 1 would mean the assets are moving in lockstep. Brent traded at $49.97 a barrel on Tuesday.

“The ruble is indirectly vulnerable to Fed tightening should the latter lead to a decline in commodity prices and an interpretation that the global economy could suffer from higher U.S. funding costs,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in an e-mailed note, recommending to short the ruble against the dollar.



Ruble Extends Monthly Retreat as Fed Risk Eclipses Oil Near $50

The ruble weakened, extending its first monthly drop since January, as looming U.S. interest-rate increases dimmed the appeal of riskier emerging-market assets and outweighed the benefit of a rebound in oil on Russia's economy. The currency of the world's biggest energy exporter lost 0.6 percent to 66.134 per dollar by 6:30 p.m.

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May 31, 2016 21:12 (GMT)

The relatively healthy US economy has boosted consumer demand for oil, which is once again at just a tick under $50 for a barrel of Brent Crude. However, a large supply of Middle Eastern oil and the high value of the dollar may keep oil from rallying in the short term. In other words, Russia can probably count on oil hovering right around $50 for the foreseeable future which may give room for a slow but steady rise to the value of the ruble. The key question is whether the Russian economy will improve, and whether government spending cuts will undermine some or all of that progress.

-- James Miller

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
AP Reports on 54 Social Media Prisoners in Russia; Memorial Cites Total of 87 Political Prisoners Now
AP has published a story today on the dozens of people imprisoned now in Russia for blog posts or even just "likes" on social media.

Dozens in Russia imprisoned for social media likes, reposts

TVER, Russia (AP) - Anastasia Bubeyeva shows a screenshot on her computer of a picture of a toothpaste tube with the words: "Squeeze Russia out of yourself!" For sharing this picture on a social media site with his 12 friends, her husband was sentenced this month to more than two years in prison.

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May 31, 2016 19:52 (GMT)

The story features Andrei Bubeyev, a provincial electrician who shared a satirical picture on VKontakte, Russia's most popular social network.

Many of the shares that led to the recent rash of convictions were of things critical of Russia's involvement in Ukraine.

This was true of the articles and images shared by Bubeyeva's husband, a 40-year-old electrician from Tver, a sleepy provincial capital halfway between Moscow and St. Petersburg.

"Andrei Bubeyev thinks that he was charged as an example so that other ordinary citizens would be discouraged from expressing their opinion," said his lawyer, Svetlana Sidorkina.

Bubeyev spent a lot of time online, sharing links to various articles on his VKontakte page and engaging in political debates on local news websites, his wife says.

In spring 2015, he left town to work on a rural construction site. After investigators couldn't get through to him on the phone, they put him on a wanted list as an extremism suspect. When Bubeyev stopped by to visit his wife and young son at their country cottage, a SWAT team stormed in and arrested him.

AP cites a figure of 54 cases of those tried for such social media "crimes".

On May 27, Memorial Human Rights Center released their latest list of political prisoners in Russia, which currently totals 87 persons. These include clear-cut social media cases such as the 54 mentioned by AP, plus those sentenced for trumped-up cases, often involving claims of assault of police, during demonstrations, such as the Bolotnaya square defendants. While some of these people have served their sentences, others have recently been arrested for a demonstration that took place 4 years ago. Others who staged solo pickets more recently have also received jail terms for repeated offenses.

The political prisoners' list also includes members of groups banned or persecuted by the government, including Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a group also banned in Germany. Memorial believes that the cases do not involve advocacy or use of violence.

Memorial cautions that this list is not complete, but only includes cases which the organizations has researched thoroughly and believe to be solid.

Although 8 political prisoners have been released since last October 30, which is celebrated each year as "Political Prisoners' Day," mainly they had completed their terms.

During that 7-month period, 45 new cases have appeared, nearly doubling the list; of these 27 are Muslims such as the Hizb-ut-Tahrir members. There are also other cases of persons accused of "extremism" or "terrorism," including Ukrainians Stanislav Klykh and Nikolai Karpyuk who were just sentenced to 22.5 and 22 years of imprisonment, respectively.

Novaya Gazeta also reported today a story of a resident of Berdsk who was sentenced to 15 months of labor colony for "inciting hatred against Orthodox believers," citing a report from Sova Center.

Maksim Kormelitsky, 21, posted a picture of people swimming in an ice hole with offensive swear words. Experts concluded that Kormelitsky, an atheist, "experiences hatred of people espousing Christianity" and his actions in posting the picture constituted "extremism."

Kormelitsky said he had copied the picture from a VKontakte community, and that 70 other people had re-posted it without incident. He believes he was singled out unfairly because an Orthodox believer saw his particular post and filed a complaint.

To be sure, Komrmelitsky already had past brushes with the law. Since the age of 19, he has had 4 criminal sentences, including cases involving "exceeding of self defense," "making a false report about an explosion," "extremism" and "unlawful demonstrations." One case involved his planting of a mock-up of a bomb at the Department on Youth Affairs in Berdsk. He had previously received a suspended sentence on "extremism" charges. A case was also opened against him in April on charges of stealing a hard drive from the office of a store called New York Pizza in Berdsk.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick 

The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
After His Home is Torched and Fellow Villagers Threatened, Chechen Critic of Kadyrov 'Apologizes' in Video
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has posted a video of a Chechen man who had once criticized him now apologizing, Moskovsky Komsomolets reported.

Ассаламу алайкум! Любому человеку свойственно ошибаться. Без каких-либо ошибок не обходятся даже великие и святые люди. Самое главное, осознанно не идти по ложному пути. Умный человек, поняв, что был в чём-то неправ, признаёт это, и становится на путь истины. Я с первого дня ясно понимал, что какие-то нездоровые силы стремятся использовать жителя села Кенхи Рамазана Джалалдинова в своих грязных и очень неблаговидных целях. Ими была предпринята психологическая и информационная атака, чтобы запугать его, внушить, что есть реальная угроза его жизни и безопасности семьи. Они стремились вынудить его покинуть родную Чечню и податься на запад. Рамазан нашел в себе силы и мудрость разобраться в происходящем, не поддаться на их уловки. Он обратился к уважаемому на всём Кавказе старейшине из Дагестана, другу Первого Президента ЧР, Героя России Ахмат-Хаджи Кадырова - Хасмагомеду Абубакарову с просьбой помочь выйти на связь со мной и публично признаться, что был неправ. Слово Хасмагомеда для нас имеет огромное значение. Рамазан возвращается в Кенхи, где живут родные и близкие ему люди. Ему, как и остальным жителям, будет оказана необходимая помощь и поддержка. Я ещё раз повторяю, что он наш человек, уроженец и житель нашей республики. Никто и никогда не проявит о нём той заботы, которую окажут в Чечне. #Кадыров #Россия #Чечня #Кенхи

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May 31, 2016 18:31 (GMT)
Ramazan Dzhalaldinov, a resident of the village of Kenkhi posted a video on YouTube April 14 criticizing Kadyrov for failure to respond to repeated complaints about his failure to repair numerous crumbling and even uninhabitable homes in Sharoy District where he lived.

"I consider this abuse of your people," he said.


Обращение жителя Шаройского района Чечни Рамазана Джалалдинова Рамзану Кадырову

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May 31, 2016 18:56 (GMT)

In the video, Dzhalaldinov questions whether funds allocated for repairing his village's homes, damaged in two wars in the 1990s, were misappropriated. He is also seen criticizing the practice of witholding the salaries of teachers and other state workers in Chechnya and not paying them on time.

Opposition activist Ilya Yashin and others have criticized Kadyrov for lack of transparency and possible corruption in collecting forced donations to his fund which is believed to feed Kadyrov's lavish lifestyle.

Dzhalaldinov also highlighted the practice of Chechen authorities paying 70% of reconstruction funds in kickbacks to Moscow, and said only those villagers who agreed to such a scheme could get aid.

As we reported, despite retaliation, Dzhalaldinov held his ground, but went into hiding in neighboring Dagestan. Masked men then came and evicted his wife and children and set their home on fire.

Then the village was surrounded by soldiers with machine guns and military vehicles. Kommersant reported that villagers were being summoned for interrogation.


After this military action, the head of his village and fellow villagers shunned Dzhalaldinov and made a point of publicly disassociating themselves from his criticism, Radio Svoboda reported May 20.

As we reported, Ali Karimov, Kadyrov's press secretary, denied that Kenkhi had been shelled during the wars and suffered damage, despite the evidence in the video, and also denied that soldiers had surrounded the village.

Dzhalaldinov said about 10 people had left the village. Most of them were from the Avars ethnic group, as he is himself.

Vasily Polonsky, a Russian journalist who investigated the story, said the village is on the border of Chechnya and Dagestan, a six-hour trip from Makhachkala. About 1,000 Avars remain there, who were exiled to that location during World War II after Chechens were deported from the same area.

"I was surprised by people's bravery," he said, as a hundred villagers surrounded him when he arrived, each eager to tell their story of hardship and abuse. Aside from the dilapidated homes, the roads are washed out.

As he finished his interviews, one villager told him to leave quickly as police were already looking for him and had already prepared an ambush on the other side of the village.

The story of Dzhalaldinov has gripped the Russian journalists' community and readers of independent press.

The effort to make him "recant," Soviet-style was designed to cut off the growing interest in his bravery in confronting Kadyrov and the real problems he exposed. 

In the video clip posted by Kadyrov, Dzhalaldinov says he went to the mosque, and decided to apologize to Kadyrov. He also denounced "provocateurs" who exaggerated what he said, as he said he had not criticized Kadyrov himself at all.

In a comment posted with the video, Kadyrov appeared to be magnanimous saying "to err his human," and "even great and holy people cannot get by without mistakes."

"An intelligent man, when he realizes he is wrong, admits it, and embarks on the path of truth," Kadyrov commented.

He said some "unhealthy forces were trying to use" Dzhalaldinov for their filthy and very ignoble purposes "-- a point also made by Khasmagomed Abubakarov, an imam shown in the video as well, to whom Dzhalaldinov said he had turned for help.

Kadyrov said Dzhalaldinov would return to his village and "would be given the necessary help" and "no one will display the care which will be given him in Chechnya."

Now Russian journalists will be watching to see what happens to him next.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick 


The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Police Come to Russian Radio Station Ekho Moskvy to Interrogate Editor in Case Against Navalny
Officers of the Interior Ministry (the police) came to the radio station Ekho Moskvy this morning, seeking to interrogate Vitaly Ruvinsky, the editor-in-chief of the web site, Novaya Gazeta reported, citing a tweet from Aleksei Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the radio.
Translation: Interior ministry officers came to Ekho in connection with a criminal case against Navalny -- they want to interrogated the editor-in-chief of the site about the posting of his blog.

Ruvinsky told Novaya Gazeta that he is to appear for an interrogation tomorrow, June 1, although he was not handed a summons. He is going to bring the station's lawyers with him.

For his part, Navalny noted that he is also to appear for interrogation regarding alleged "libel" in his blog.
Translation: Tomorrow I am summoned for interrogation in connection with the "libel" in the blog, but today they came to Ekho for my soul.

The post in question, published April 11, 2016 was about the Magnitsky List and mentioned former Interior Ministry investigator Pavel Karpov.

Karpov complained about videos from the site Stop the Untouchables maintained by William Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital who has campaigned for justice for Sergei Magnitsky, his lawyer who was tortured to death in a Russian prison after blowing the whistle on fraud involving Karpov and others. Karpov has launched libel cases in the past; in England, he lost his case against Browder in 2013, but in Russia, he obtained a judgement in his favor for 100,000 rubles ($1,517).

In 2014, Navalny and some other critical bloggers, including Boris Nemtsov who was assassinated last year, had their regular columns removed from Ekho Moskvy under pressure from the censor. But they are still published as guest authors.

Navalny's post on April 11 described the flimsy claims of a sensational broadcast on state Channel 1 that Navalny, code named "Agent Freedom," was supposedly recruited by Browder to work for the CIA (who himself supposedly worked for both the CIA and British M16) in an operation titled "Shiver." Navalny specifically mentioned that Karpov had accused him of forgery, which he denied.

The crude propaganda smear drew derision from Navalny and laughter from many people on social media; in fact an actual former M16 spy working for another official in the Magnitsky List was involved in the smear.

Navalny found the cover of an old Cold War-era novel to illustrate his blog.

Karpov has said that now Navalny will have a chance to prove his claims that he is involved in Magnitsky's murder; Navalny is looking forward to seeing how the government can prove he is a CIA/MI6 agent.

The latest Navalny case follows past prosecution of Navalny for various trumped-up offenses; he is currently serving a suspended sentence. It's also yet another indication of mounting pressure on Ekho Moskvy.


-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
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