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The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Russia Update: January 21, 2016

Publication: Russia Update
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The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Kadyrov Doubles Down on Threats Against Opposition, Demonstratively Posts Photo of Himself With Geremeyev
Yesterday, as the Russian media was filled with stories about the impending interview with Aleksandr Bastrykin today, where he announced that the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was "solved," Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov demonstratively posed with the powerful relative of the man believed by friends and supporters of Nemtsov to have organized the murder -- whom Bastrykin let get away.
On his Instagram account -- Kadyrov's favorite place for posting everything from pronouncements and threats to pictures of his wife and children -- Kadyrov posted a picture of himself with "his dear BROTHER" Suleyman Geremeyev, a member of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian 
2016-01-21 19:35:38

Suleyman is the relative of Ruslan Geremeyev, head of the Sever Battalion, the elite unite of the Chechen Interior Ministry's troops in which Zaur Dadayev, the chief suspect of the murder, and the other suspects served. The independent media as well as friends and family of Nemtsov repeatedly pointed out the necessity of interrogating and even arresting Geremeyev, who traveled to Moscow with Dadayev shortly before the murder last February, but in fact Moscow law-enforcers never seemed able to overcome the objections of Chechen officials -- and then Geremeyev fled Russia. Geremeyev's driver, Ruslan Mukhutdinov, who also escaped, was placed on a Russian international wanted list.

By "brother," Kadyrov means "cousin," as Russians use this term not just for immediate family members but more distant relatives. 

It happened to be Geremeyev's birthday yesterday. Kadyrov wrote (translation by The Interpreter):

From the very beginning, he became a faithful comrade-at-arms of the First President of the Chechen Republic, Hero of Russia Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov, and never hesitated on the chosen path, and did everything that was in his power to help and support Akhmat-Khadzhi. At a time when others were still taking a wait-and-see position, doubting in the capabilities of the Kadyrov team, Suleyman Sadulayevich stated that he and his brothers were always together with Akhmat-Khadzi. Geremeyev has always assisted in the resolving of issues, which he brought to Moscow. He essentially acted as an aide to the president of the Chechen Republic. In these years, serious changes have taken place, Chechnya has changed to be unrecognizable. But today he displays principled position, a state approach to defending the interests of the republic in the Federation Council. I congratulate Suleyman Sadulayevich, and wish him strong health, happiness and prosperity!

In other words, Geremeyev is Kadyrov's lieutenant, taking care of assignments given him to perform in Moscow as an influential member of parliament -- a position which gives him immunity from prosecution.

Since Kadyrov made his latest threats to the opposition, and there have been a number of responses, Kadyrov has only doubled down, orchestrating "flash mobs" of dutiful government employees to stage demonstrations with posters bearing various alarming slogans.

As if to underscore his position of power -- and impunity -- Kadyrov also posted a picture of himself at target practice yesterday, and a tag line:

"I am a slave of God, a servant of the people, and Putin's infantryman. Whoever doesn't understand this, will."
Kadyrov's threats -- the responses to them and first the condemnation then the apology of a Krasnoyarsk law-maker after an unnamed prominent Chechen "got to him" have been avidly covered by both official and independent media. 

Translation: Cover of the fresh issue of the Moscow Times.

Kadyrov and his supporters made use of social media as much as their critics.

A hashtag campaign was started on Twitter with various pro-Kremlin figures carrying posters saying "Kadyrov is a patriot of Russia."

Novaya Gazeta reported that United Russia, the ruling party also showed solidarity with Kadyrov by having Sergei Neverov, secretary of the party's general council; Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the United Russia faction in the State Duma; and Irina Yarovaya, head of the Duma committee on security post a photograph with the slogan.

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Jan 21, 2016 23:46 (GMT)
Cadets at the Grozny Suvorov Military Academy spelled out his name and carried the posters.

Translation: Stars, military and foreigners in the flashmob.

Patriotic singers Fyodor Bondarchuk and singer Nikolai Baskoy also posted photos of themselves with the slogans, as did various Chechen state employees. Komsomolskaya Pravda also posted mash-ups making it appear as if President Barack Obama, Sylvester Stallone and other celebrities were carrying the same posters.

Perhaps the campaign was going too far, as yesterday, presidential administration spokesman Dmitry Peskov tried to downplay Kadyrov's campaigns, saying:

"Nothing should be whipped up, you must simply read what is said calmly. The president is in constant dialogue both with the dominant political force and with opposition parties. But if we speak of those who, invoking political activity, speak of the readiness to deliberately go outside the framework of the law, then they at a minimum are not fostering stability and the prosperity of our state."

Ilya Yashin, deputy chairman of the Parnas opposition party, said he planned to release a report on Kadyrov on February 23 on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the murder of his close associate, Boris Nemtsov, RFE/RL's Russian-language service Svoboda reported, citing Vedomosti.

Translation: opposition member Ilya Yashin announced the publication of a report on Ramzan Kadyrov.

The report covers Kadyrov's career since the days when he fought the Russian government with Chechen rebels in the 1990s, then switched sides to become loyal to Moscow. The authors outline allegations of political murders which Kadyrov may be involved. The report concludes that the establishment of Kadyrov's regime threatens the political system of Russia itself.

Amnesty International issued a statement in Russian calling on Russia's federal authorities to "react" to the "barely-veiled threats" aimed at prominent journalists, human rights advocates and opposition politicians coming from Kadyrov.

Amnesty said such threats had to be taken seriously, given the history of the murders of journalist Anna Politkovskaya and human rights activist Natalya Estemirova and others.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Investigative Committee's Bastrykin Says Nemtsov Murder 'Solved'; But He Let Organizers Get Away
In an interview with Rossiyaskaya Gazeta, the government paper of record, Aleksandr Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, gave a round-up of his perceived accomplishments in the last year.

His agency's 8,780 employees, including military investigators, have reviewed 4.3 million complaints from citizens and opened up 663,000 criminal cases, of which 500,000 were sent to court. A million trips to the scenes of crimes were made. He did not provide the acquittal rate for cases, nor the number of cases of law-enforcers prosecuted, which is one of the indicators analysts use to see how fair a judicial system is; Bastrykin has been accused by former colleagues of abetting the closure of corruption cases to let officials off the hook.

Bastrykin also said 91.5% of the crimes undertaken by the Investigative Committee are solved, by contrast with 82.5% in 2006 and 89.3% in 2014. Among the high-profile crimes solved, Bastrykin named first of all the case of the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, then noted a number of other sensational cases including the murder of the Russian Coca-Cola factory director Dmitry Soshnev and the murder of 78 people, including police officers and soldiers in the North Caucasus Federal District committed by the Taziev gang.

Russian media have run stories all this week saying this claim regarding Nemtsov's case was coming, but in the event, there was only a scant sentence. By "solved," Bastrykin means that five suspects -- all of who have retracted their testimony claiming torture -- have been charged and physical evidence has been produced tying them to the stalking and murder of Nemtsov on the night of February 27, 2015.

But two of the associates of the defendants said to be the organizers of the murder -- Ruslan Geremeyev, leader of the Sever Battalion and his driver, Ruslan Mukhatudinov -- have slipped away, and this is in fact Bastrykin's fault, because he refused -- or was unable -- to pursue them and interrogate and arrest them in the Chechen Republic, and they fled the country.

Vadim Prokhorov, lawyer for the Nemtsov family, disputed the claim that the case was "solved" because the mastermind of the murder had not been named, TV Rain and Novaya Gazeta reported (translated by The Interpreter):

"Bastrykin is either not informed of what is going on, or is deliberately leading people astray. Any criminal expert will tell you that no crime, especially a contract murder, can be considered solved before the contractors and organizers of the murder are established and their motives learned. Neither the contractors or the organizers nor their motives are in the case to date."
Curiously, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the presidential administration, then made a statement today apparently contradicting Bastrykin, TASS reported.

"There is the investigation, the indictment, the defense, and the trial. It is the court that must give consent to whether or not [the murder of Nemtsov] is solved. This does not enter into the prerogative of the Kremlin."
Zhanna Nemtsova, the daughter of Boris, said that she did not consider the murder of her father to have been solved, Interfax reported.

"Several times, Bastrykin did not sign the order for the charging of Ruslan Geremeyev in absentia. This is what sources I trust say."

Authorities continue to remove the unofficial memorial of flowers and pictures placed at the scene of Nemtsov's murder on the Bolshoi Moskvoretsky Bridge.

Translation:  Once again, the memorial at the site of the murder of Nemtsov has been destroyed.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick 

The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Russia's Central Bank Chief Cancels Trip to Davos Economic Forum Over Ruble Collapse
Elvira Nabiyullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, has cancelled her trip to the Davos World Economic Forum, where she was to be part of Russia's official delegation, due to the collapse of the ruble, reported.

The cancellation was made just a few hours ago, and was confirmed by a source at the Central Bank, said

As we reported earlier, "collapse" is not a word that Russian leaders want to use, but it is one that the Russian independent media is using.

Yesterday, Putin joked at a Russian forum on small business that Russian officials couldn't afford to go to Davos and were staying home where they belonged. 

Nabiyullina has said that the current exchange rate of the ruble was "close to the fundamental justified one," reported.

The ruble is currently trading at 83.11, after reaching 85 this morning.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Russian Fighter Jets Pursued A Swedish AEW Flight Near Bolnholm Last Week

Svenska Dagbladet reports that two Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets pursued a Swedish airborne early warning and control flight over the Baltic last week.

Micael Bydén, supreme commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, told the defence committee today that the Russian jets following the Saab ASC 890 aircraft broke off after two Gripen jet fighters were dispatched to intercept them.

The incident occurred in the southern Baltic, near the Danish island of Bornholm.

According to the report, the foreign aircraft usually observe each others flight routes before moving on, however in this case the Russian fighters continued to chase the Swedish flight.

Allan Widman, chairman of the defence committee, said that it was "not an everyday incident."

This is only the latest in a series of worrying encounters between Swedish and Russian military aircraft.

-- Pierre Vaux
The Interpreter
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Ruble Sinks to New Low of 85 to US Dollar; VTB President Says 'Will Never Return to 60 Again'

The rate of the ruble to the US dollar fell to yet another historic low today as it is trading at 85 to a dollar, 91 to a euro, reported; the lowest before the current period was on December 16, 2014, so this means this the worst exchange rate since since the crisis of 1998. Currently the ruble is trading at 84.30 to the dollar and 91.86 to the euro, with Brent crude at $27.68, reported.

The Central Bank raised the official rate by over 4 rubles to 83.59 for the dollar and 91.18 for the euro, Vedomosti reported.

Vedomosti reported that Andrei Kostin, president of VTB Bank, who was attending the Davos World Economic Forum this week, commented that the ruble was weak "against the strongly rallying dollar."  

Translation: Kostin: The dollar at 60 rubles is hardly likely.

He further noted (translation by The Interpreter):

"I don't expect a significant rallying of the ruble, although with the drop in oil prices some correlative rise is possible.

But it will never return to the level of 60 rubles (to the dollar)."

He didn't see signs of a currency shock despite the 4% drop today.

"There is no currency shock, we don't see behavior by clients  out of the ordinary, he told journalists. In his opinion, the current level of the key rate of 11% is adquate for the economic conditions.

"It's possible that that there will be a weakening of the Central Bank from the perspective of the normatives, I don't think that the support of capital and liquidity is needed, said Kudrin, answering a question regarding whether the support of the banking sector was needed.

Presidential administration spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:

"I wouldn't use the word 'collapse.' The rate is really changing, the rate is volatile, but that is far from a collapse."

He said the Central Bank has developed several scenarios which will help to avoid a real collapse.

Sixty percent of Russians polled by Nielsen said they were refraining from buying new clothes due to the economic crisis, reported.  And 71% said they were making compromises of some kind in their budget, whether deciding not to travel or to buy less food

Russian social media has been full of commentary on the ruble crash, a lot of it sardonic.

Translation: I saw the rate of foreign currency.

This Coub (a Russian version of a Gif) is popular; it shows a cartoon cat smashing a puzzle of a fish.

Translation: The Ministry of Finance is saving Russia's economy.

Cat:   "Once again, nothing works! And that's how it works, too... Well, please, I don't need it!."

In this Coub, a clip from the movie Liar, Liar starring American actor Jim Carey showing incredulity is mashed up with an interview with Patriarch Kirill, who solemnly proclaims, "We are not talking about the value of the ruble; we are talking about a change in the exchange rate of the ruble." reported that lines were forming at a number of currency exchange booths in Moscow, and some experts were starting to use the word "panic."

 "The panic factor is clearly operating," said Ilya Prilepsky, head of International Economy at the Economic Expert Group.

-- Catherine A. Fitzpatrick