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Acknowledgements

Press by
The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Triangulation Of Videos Proves GRAD Rockets Fired Well Inside Russian Border
5 years
Another Video Places GRAD Rocket Launch Inside Russia
The analysis by The Interpreter has now been published to the front page of Foreign Policy Magazine:

Of course, this makes the claims we made earlier come under even more scrutiny. No one with any credibility is questioning where the cameras are located in these videos. Clearly, the videos were taken inside Russia. The main claim that some skeptics have suggested is that these rockets are so far away from from the camera that they are actually inside Ukraine.

The problem is easily solved, however, with some simple geometry, as now there are two different camera angles of the same event.

Let's take a look at the first video we posted, and the best angle we could come up with using Google streetview (the angle of the camera and the angle of Google's streetview are not the same):

video-1-angles.jpg

If you notice, we've added a red line to the little man on the map in the left corner at the bottom of that picture. It's the approximate angle of the camera to the site of the launch. As we're about to see, even if this is off by a few degrees it's not going to impact our results.

Now let's take a look at the best video we've found. The angles of both the Google view and the camera are almost perfect.

pic-from-due-south.jpg

Now, in this video we do not see the rockets. We do, however, see the smoke, and it is drifting from right to left, from east to west. Because of this, if we draw a line from our camera across the town on the other side of the lake to where we see the right-most smoke, this will tell us the farthest west the rockets were launched from.

And if we extend both lines from both videos, they intersect at approximately the spot where the rockets must have been launched from. Again, as we can see from this illustration, even if our lines are many degrees off it makes very littler difference to the results -- it is very clear that the GRAD rockets were launched approximately here:

launch-site.jpg

That location is approximately 5 kilometers east of Ukraine's border and nearly 20 kilometers south of it. In other words, there is now no doubt that these rockets were launched inside Russia's border, and that the rockets were aimed at Ukraine.