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Acknowledgements

Press by
The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Geolocating Rockets Fired From Russia Toward Ukraine
8 years
Second Video Clearly Shows Rockets Launched From Russia Toward Ukraine
US Imposes New, Sectoral Sanctions on Russia

Let's take a closer look at where there rockets may be headed.

One small hindrance is that while we've identified many features that are the same between the video and Google streetview, the angles are different because the camera was significantly closer to the water than Google's vehicle was. Still, you can see the sloping ground in the foreground, one of the bushes, and the crop of rocks in this video. The angles are roughly as follows:

direction-camera-facing.jpg

Again, the angles are not perfect, but as you can see the Google map is facing roughly west-north-west, like this:

Google-Maps-2014-07-16-16-11-311.png

The camera is actually likely facing further to the north.

In the video of the night launch, the rockets appear to be launching to the right and slightly away from the camera, but it is extremely hard to tell what exact direction the rockets are traveling unless one can triangulate them. However, if we zoom out we see that no matter what direction the rockets are firing, we can tell with a high degree of certainty that they will hit Ukraine. Below we have put an exaggerated possible cone of fire based on the angles we've estimated. All of the possible angles lead to a direct strike on Ukrainian soil:

likely-cone-of-fire.png

These are provided for illustrative purposes, are only our preliminary analysis, and need additional work. What they do prove, however, is that even if our initial angles are significantly off, the narrative is air tight -- someone launched what look like GRAD rockets from Russian territory and toward Ukrainian soil.