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Published in Stream:
Russia Update: January 19, 2016
Press by
The Interpreter
@Interpreter_Mag
Russian-to-English translation journal, with original analysis and commentary on Russia's foreign & domestic policy.
Interpreter_Mag
Ruble Rises As Brent Crude Oil Bounces From Record Lows
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Yesterday the value of both a barrel of oil and the ruble fell through the floor:

Today, however, they're both rebounding. According to Bloomberg, Brent Crude Oil is up .28% today, or eight cents. It's currently trading at $28.70, down from today's peak of $30.08 but still an improvement from where it opened.

CNBC reports:

Brent crude oil prices rebounded on Tuesday from a 12-year low after data showed Chinese oil demand likely hit a record high in 2015, but the recovery was not expected to last amid warnings that the market would stay oversupplied this year.

Analysts also attributed much of the bounce from under $28 a barrel to a brief short covering rally after oil prices crashed over 20 percent this year, triggering a record volume of short positions in the week through Jan. 12.

"It seems to be a healthy upside correction in an otherwise downtrending market," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

The ruble also recovered, which had some Russian analysts feeling optimistic earlier today. Bloomberg reports:

The yield on Russian government five-year notes fell 18 basis points to 10.63 percent, the biggest move on Tuesday among debt from Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The currency rose 1 percent to 78.468 against the dollar by 6:30 p.m. in Moscow after closing on Monday near a historical low of 80.10. Brent crude advanced 2.2 percent.

The ruble is the second-worst performer in emerging markets this year, threatening to rekindle inflation, as collapsing crude prices weigh on budget revenue. The currency’s 14-day relative strength index has traded under 30, the threshold that signals to some analysts that an asset is oversold, since Jan. 5. Current-account data released on Monday showed the country’s surplus grew 13 percent in last year compared with 2014.

“If the ruble doesn’t weaken to new lows, then we might say that the bottom is behind us,” ING’s chief Russia economist Dmitry Polevoy said on Tuesday. “Current-account data confirmed that there are no clear fundamental reasons for the ruble’s further declines, besides an overall negative speculative mood.”

Moscow's market is closed, but the ruble is already slowly losing value, suggesting that Polevoy's optimism may have been premature. Currently the ruble is trading at 78.8380 to the dollar -- still a .60% improvement from yesterday, but not confidence-inspiring.

The ruble, in dollars, over the course of the day:

2016-01-19 20:01:52
-- James Miller